SIR (susceptible-infectious-recovered) model for infectious disease outbreaks in epidemiology.
birch sample \ --model SIRModel \ --input-file input/russian_influenza.json \ --output-file output/russian_influenza.json \ --ncheckpoints 14 \ --nparticles 100 \ --nsamples 10
Any of the parameters and the initial conditions can be clamped by
modifying the input file,
The parameter model is given by: where is a rate of interaction in the population, the probability of infection when a susceptible individual interacts with an infectious individual, and the daily recovery probability.
The initial model for time is:
The transition model for time is: where is the number of interactions between infectious and susceptible individuals, the number of newly infected individuals, and the number of newly recovered individuals.
Population counts are then updated: